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November 4, 2016


Donald Trump keeps telling us just a matter of days from Election Day to not believe what the polls show; that he is ahead and not behind and is going to win. I think he is partly right and partly wrong and following are my reasons why.

He is right about not believing what the polls show because the polls do not capture substantial segments of our population in their polling, notably Latinos. The fact is that he is therefore worse off rather than better off than current polling shows and is therefore right to suggest that we not trust the polling we see today. In addition to the unpolled Latino population very likely to vote Democratic in view of his blanket insult of Mexicans as rapists and murderers, he has another problem for his spin machine to manage and spin.

Thus here in Florida it was reported a few days ago that the “tight election” is not as tight as his spinsters would have us believe because 28% of early voting Republicans voted for Hillary, which is a two-for-one situation where she gets 28 out of 100 Republican voters and he loses 28 of 100 Republican voters for a total of 56 raw count votes. The pollsters counted the vote for the candidates by political affiliation, but that measurement is not working in this peculiar election in which Trump has called women pigs, mocked the disabled, “I’m the greatest,” etc.  The result lays waste to the pollsters’ predilection to use party affiliation in counting early voting. That may tell us what their political affiliation is, but it doesn’t tell us just who they voted for in the upcoming general election, and so I agree with Trump, i.e., the polling is unreliable, but I do not agree that he is winning – far from it.

Trump is destined to lose states he cannot afford to lose, such as North Carolina, Nevada and very likely Florida where it was reported yesterday as above noted that 28% of Republicans as early voters voted for Hillary, which renders pollsters’ findings at least suspect. If that margin persists through Election Day, Hillary will easily carry Florida and harvest its 29 electoral votes. Experts tell us that Trump cannot win without Florida, so if he loses Florida he is toast, whatever and however his spin machine deals with it, e.g., miscount, rigging, a fix, failure of RNC support or whatever misdeed his narcissistic mind conjures up to avert his description as a loser, a designation that must be avoided at all costs given his narcissistic “I’m the greatest, everybody loves me” self-description.

I also note in passing that I may have been wrong early on in predicting a landslide victory for Clinton but a win is a win whether electoral only or via both electoral and raw count. I think she will enjoy both an electoral and raw count victory by margins which should preclude Trump’s promise not to be bound by the result if he thinks rigging or other such mischief is involved to such an extent that it affected the final result. Such talk is of no consequence, of course, since it is the American people who are in charge of choosing those who are to govern, not that of any individual, including Trump.

Though I continue to predict a solid win for Hillary, I do wish to remind all readers of this short essay that she will not win unless we the voters vote early or show up at the polls, so let’s understand after a year or more of political insult and innuendo that the whole thing comes down to arithmetic, otherwise known as turnout. So let’s be sure to vote, and let’s vote for sanity over psychosis. Let’s vote for Hillary, and while we are at it, let’s vote for Democratic candidates for the House and Senate so that she will have some help in reversing the enormous damage done to our economy, our country and our people by tea party Republicans and libertarian mobs of the superrich who would undo our democracy in the name of power and profit.    GERALD     E


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